Italy: Growth expectations are too optimistic


Here is the frightening part of the Italian budget: growth figures. In an interview Giovanni Tria said that growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020 were 1.6% and 1.7% respectively. These are unbelievable expectations. Such numbers were attained only in period of global euphoria (2006) or of global recovery (2010). This… Read More »

Ten Years on


On September 15, 2008, the collapse of Lehman brothers set off a shockwave that rippled out right across the world economy. What can we make of this watershed moment 10 years down the line? The extent and duration of the shock that hit the world economy are still impressive even… Read More »

Weak inflation readings suggest continuing ECB prudence


Latest surveys point to some improvement in economic activity, while inflation readings remain low. Core inflation in the Eurozone declined last month to 1% only, reflecting weakness in both core goods inflation (-0.01% MoM) and weak core services (+0.01% MoM rise only). Though unemployment is falling, and wage growth is… Read More »

Businesses in Greece: finally, a fresh start?


With Greece about to pull out of its third bailout package, signs of economic recovery are multiplying: 2017 was a year marked by the return of positive growth (+1.4%), and – despite weakening growth in the eurozone – Greek GDP growth is expected to be close to 2% in 2018,… Read More »

Columbia Threadneedle comments on Turkish crisis


Whilst the headlines focus on the political rhetoric, in many respects this is an old fashioned Emerging market crisis prompted by a ballooning of external debt at both the public and private level. In the near term, the sharp depreciation in the Turkish Lira, the worsening relationship with USA and… Read More »

Venezuela: The crisis is far from being over


Venezuela is in crisis. Its economic activity is collapsing, its inflation rate is skyrocketing and the value of its currency is falling like a stone. People are leaving the country as soon as possible as they perceive that there is no future. People are starving. The average weight of the… Read More »

Goldman Sachs Asset Management Market Update: Turkey


A combination of domestic political and policy uncertainty alongside a diplomatic dispute with the US has contributed the latest sell-off in Turkish assets: Politics Turkey has been in a state of emergency since an attempted military coup in July 2016. In April, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced parliamentary and presidential… Read More »

Turkey: the road to a persistent crisis

Philippe Waechter -

The sell-off on the Turkish lira continues. The exchange rate against the dollar was above seven (7.2 in Asia) last night, it it now at 6.85 (just before 0400 pm, Paris time today) while it was at just 5.15 a week ago. The graph is impressive and shows that the… Read More »