Philippe Waechter -
The Dutch government has just shelled out $775million and is now the proud owner of close to 13% of the Air France – KLM group, reflecting its determination to get back on an equal footing with the French government in the airline group. The Dutch government felt that KLM had… Read More »
Without a doubt the last two months will enter the pantheon of memorable financial market episodes: the worst December since 1931 followed by the best January since 1987. If there is one thing this turnaround has demonstrated, it is that the main driver of risky assets is not earnings forecasts,… Read More »
The French GDP growth was 1.1% (at annual rate) during the fourth quarter of last year. The same number than during the third quarter. Social unrest has had no impact on the headline figure. Nevertheless, details show that the private sector domestic demand stalled (0.2%) during the last quarter after… Read More »
Recent data on the German industrial production show a rapid drop in the economic activity. The quarterly change was already at -5.5% in the third quarter (annual rate). At the end of November, the carryover for the last quarter of 2018 is at -7.8%. There is a strong consistency between… Read More »
Marco Bonaviri -
The end of each year sees finance experts publish their forecasts for the coming year. After a 2018 full of twists and turns, what about 2019? We identify three major topics which will have to be taken on board and which will have a major impact on what the financial… Read More »
Economic activity remains solid, with the first estimate of last quarter’s GDP growth in line with strong activity. The most positive contributions to aggregate growth came from consumer spending – which accelerated to 4% growth (prior 3.8%), as well as government spending (+3.3%). This is in line with lower federal… Read More »
Donald Trump hit out again recently at the Federal Reserve for its monetary policy management, taking it to task for hiking interest rates, which he claims would hamper US growth. But this is something of a bold statement given the White House’s fiscal policy. The chart below depicts US unemployment… Read More »
The European Commission has just told Italy to revise its 2019 budget plan: the deficit does not look excessive (2.4%), but the figure is deemed to be fragile as growth projections are overly optimistic …. and with a government that emerged from a watershed vote, we should expect a certain… Read More »
On October 10, global equity markets tumbled, led by the US, with the S&P 500 Index declining -3.3%. The VIX Index—a measure of US equity market volatility—spiked above 20 to its highest level in six months. The event was US equity market centric, while the response in other assets and… Read More »
Philippe Waechter -
French public debt stands at close to 100% of GDP, but is this really a cause for concern? No – it is important not to overstate the importance of this figure. French statistics body INSEE made the news as it measured public debt at over 100% of GDP for 2017,… Read More »
Podcast