Emmanuel Macron won French presidential elections: In Sunday’s second-round runoff, Macron defeated far-right National Front leader Marine Le Pen by 58.5% to 41.5%, confirming his leader in the most recent polls. However, the outcome in the second round was much narrower than in 2017 and the abstention rate was put… Read More »
It’s hard not to fixate on comments from the Fed’s Bullard suggesting that a 75bp rate hike would not be off the table in May. For good reasons, the Federal Reserve is still trying to gain control of the inflation narrative on Wall Street but far more importantly on Main… Read More »
The war in Ukraine has catalysed two important megatrends – the growing need for cybersecurity, and the transition towards green energy. Why cybersecurity? Why now? The guidance from the United States Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) for organisations, since the conflict started, is ‘shields up’ (see figure below). CISA… Read More »
Alas, it is settled. Inflation is not transitory. Its persistent uptick has serious implications for the global economy. The ongoing conflict, in addition to all the suffering it is causing in Ukraine, has created a further inflationary shock for the world. How are investors hedging themselves? Don’t be surprised by… Read More »
Thematic universe overview AUM in thematic Exchange Traded Funds (“ETFs”) and open-ended funds stands at $289 billion as of end of March 2022. ETFs’ market share hovers around 13%, with a total AUM of $44 billion. Flows have remained positive in Q1 2022, with $7.3 billion across ETFs and open-ended… Read More »
• We prefer equities even as bond yields have sprinted higher. Global growth is still solid, and we see central banks ultimately living with inflation. • U.S. 10-year yields hit new three-year highs last week, and stocks fell. The European Central Bank affirmed our view it will normalize policy very… Read More »
Many commentators expect the world to deglobalize following the US-China trade war, the pandemic, and the invasion of Ukraine. We take a longer perspective and ask if globalization—the growth in cross-border movement of goods, capital, people, technologies, data, and ideas—has already started to reverse. Despite a rapid 2021 rebound, global… Read More »
Italy, just like other European countries, has launched last year a National Recovery and Resilience Plan. The plan is funded by the EU in the framework of the NGEU – Next Generation EU – initiative, and Italy’s share corresponds to 191.5 billion Euros, to be spent in the period 2021… Read More »
Minimal impact in the short term, but not helpful In the short term, we expect minimal impact both on demand and supply from the Russia/Ukraine conflict for our coverage. Russia and Ukraine represent a very small fraction of sales for the semi industry (e.g. Taiwan semi exports to Russia were… Read More »
• Supply shocks have created scarcity inflation, making higher inflation more persistent and increasing the risk of a growth slowdown. • Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hit three-year highs after it became clear the Fed will start to reduce its balance sheet quickly. We see further yield rises ahead. • We… Read More »
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